THURSDAY, JULY 24, 2014
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Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Today

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across much of our region again today. Storms will develop in two rounds. The first will develop across Nebraska early this morning and move northeast into south-central and southeast South Dakota by mid morning. Large hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts will be the primary severe threat with storms that develop this morning.

Round two will happen this afternoon as storms redevelop across eastern South Dakota and move into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Development of afternoon storms will depend largely on what happens with our first round of storms this morning. If the morning storms hold together, they could flush out some of the potential energy for storms this afternoon. If not, explosive development of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon and evening.

The atmosphere will be very unstable and packed with moisture this afternoon and the dynamics will be present for strong, supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. In addition to severe weather, the significant amount of moisture in the atmosphere means the potential for very heavy rain in places that have already had more than they can handle. Flash flooding will, once again, be possible in many places.

Stay weather aware today. Be sure you have a means of staying in touch with changing weather conditions because things could happen very quickly later today.

Severe Storms with Large Hail, Tornadoes Today

The severe storm threat continues to increase across the tri-state area. The latest SPC severe weather outlook has moved the enhanced tornado threat area slightly west , which puts it closer to I-29 and the Sioux Falls metro area. As of right now, I think storms will develop south and southwest of Sioux Falls between noon and 1 PM, and move north east toward Sioux Falls by early to mid afternoon. Storms will then continue northeastward into southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa.

Storms that do develop will have the potential to produce large, destructive hail and tornadoes.

Our last several model runs have been very consistent with placement of storms in the Sioux Falls area today. I put some key timeframes from our future cast down below.

Please stay alert and be prepared today.

SPC Severe Outlook as of 11:30am on 5/8/14.

SPC Severe Outlook as of 11:30am on 5/8/14.

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Severe Storms Possible Today & Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern South Dakota, southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa later today into tonight.

A few isolated thunderstorms will develop east of Sioux Falls, across southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa late this afternoon and early this evening. Storms will move northeast into southern Minnesota by mid evening. Hail and straight-line wind gusts will be the primary threat with storms this evening, however, there is a slight chance that the storms could produce an isolated tornado.

There is a much better chance of thunderstorms by mid-to-late evening and through the overnight hours tonight. Large hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts are possible with storms that move through tonight. A secondary line of storms may move through the Sioux Falls area around daybreak Thursday morning.

I’ve posted some key timeframes from our latest FutureCast below.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the day.

SPC Severe Outlook as of 8am CDT on 5/7/14

SPC Severe Outlook as of 8am CDT on 5/7/14

FutureCast

FutureCast

FutureCast

FutureCast

FutureCast