MONDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2014
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First Major Winter Storm of the Season

Our first major winter storm of the season is winding up and getting ready to roll. A Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Storm Watch are already in effect. Here’s a map of the latest warnings and my latest FutureCast snow forecast. I’ll get into more detail later today, but I wanted to get these maps up for you this morning. Be prepared for dangerous winter travel conditions starting this evening and continuing through, most likely, Tuesday morning.

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Heavy Rain Possible Wed & Thu

Followed by a GORGEOUS Labor Day Weekend!

There will be a lot of interesting stuff happening in our weather over the next few days. Today will be another comfortable, cool day, heavy rain is possible in some places later this week, and as of right now, the Labor Day weekend looks fantastic!

Let’s start with today: It’ll be partly cloudy with high temps in the low to mid 70s. The dew point will be in the 50s, which falls well within the “very comfortable” range. There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm later today, but a better chance tonight, tomorrow and Thursday.

The rain: Showers and thunderstorms are likely along and south of I-90 late tonight into tomorrow and again Wednesday night through Thursday. Models are suggesting that there will be places that get one to two inches of rain. As of right now, those models are fairly consistent in keeping the heaviest rain south of Sioux Falls, however, depending on the track of the system and individual thunderstorm cells, we could easily get one-half inch or more of rain across parts of the metro area. We will be keeping a very close eye on the rain as it develops.

The weekend: As of right now Labor Day weekend is lookin’ pretty spiffy. Temperatures will warm into the low 80s and it will be mostly dry. One of our models is hinting at an isolated late-night thunderstorm Sunday night into Monday, but overall things look pretty good. Of course, the weekend is still several days away and things could change a bit. I’ll let you know how it goes as we get closer.

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Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Possible Today & Tonight

SPC Severe risk as of 8am:

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Storms will develop across central SD late this afternoon and move east through the evening and overnight. At the same time, a few storms could develop along the warm front (north of I-90) this evening. Right now it looks like a late evening/overnight timeframe for the Sioux Falls area. That could change, so stay tuned.

 PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 4AM: 

There was plenty of cloud to ground lightning with storms early this morning.

There was plenty of cloud to ground lightning with storms early this morning.

A few thunderstorms are moving across the region this morning. Some storms could produce marginally severe hail, but overall I do not expect widespread severe weather this morning.

That will change this afternoon. Today will be one of those days that feels like something is a brewin’. It will be warm and very humid today and that heat and humidity will help fuel storms later this afternoon and evening. Some storms will likely be severe with large hail and isolated tornadoes possible. Our latest models suggest that storms will develop east of the Missouri River by mid-to-late afternoon and move east into this evening and overnight. In addition to the possibility of hail and an isolated tornado, there is also the potential for locally heavy rain. Stay tuned for the very latest details… I’ll be updating all day via Twitter, Facebook and KSFY.com.

Expect warm, humid weather to continue through the rest of the week. Tomorrow will be dry but there is a chance of scattered thunderstorms on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. If the heat and humidity isn’t your thing, wait till next week. High temperatures will be much cooler – in the low 70s – on Monday and Tuesday.