TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2014
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Category: Daily Weather Discussion

Heavy Rain Possible Wed & Thu

Followed by a GORGEOUS Labor Day Weekend!

There will be a lot of interesting stuff happening in our weather over the next few days. Today will be another comfortable, cool day, heavy rain is possible in some places later this week, and as of right now, the Labor Day weekend looks fantastic!

Let’s start with today: It’ll be partly cloudy with high temps in the low to mid 70s. The dew point will be in the 50s, which falls well within the “very comfortable” range. There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm later today, but a better chance tonight, tomorrow and Thursday.

The rain: Showers and thunderstorms are likely along and south of I-90 late tonight into tomorrow and again Wednesday night through Thursday. Models are suggesting that there will be places that get one to two inches of rain. As of right now, those models are fairly consistent in keeping the heaviest rain south of Sioux Falls, however, depending on the track of the system and individual thunderstorm cells, we could easily get one-half inch or more of rain across parts of the metro area. We will be keeping a very close eye on the rain as it develops.

The weekend: As of right now Labor Day weekend is lookin’ pretty spiffy. Temperatures will warm into the low 80s and it will be mostly dry. One of our models is hinting at an isolated late-night thunderstorm Sunday night into Monday, but overall things look pretty good. Of course, the weekend is still several days away and things could change a bit. I’ll let you know how it goes as we get closer.

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Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Possible Today & Tonight

SPC Severe risk as of 8am:

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Storms will develop across central SD late this afternoon and move east through the evening and overnight. At the same time, a few storms could develop along the warm front (north of I-90) this evening. Right now it looks like a late evening/overnight timeframe for the Sioux Falls area. That could change, so stay tuned.

 PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 4AM: 

There was plenty of cloud to ground lightning with storms early this morning.

There was plenty of cloud to ground lightning with storms early this morning.

A few thunderstorms are moving across the region this morning. Some storms could produce marginally severe hail, but overall I do not expect widespread severe weather this morning.

That will change this afternoon. Today will be one of those days that feels like something is a brewin’. It will be warm and very humid today and that heat and humidity will help fuel storms later this afternoon and evening. Some storms will likely be severe with large hail and isolated tornadoes possible. Our latest models suggest that storms will develop east of the Missouri River by mid-to-late afternoon and move east into this evening and overnight. In addition to the possibility of hail and an isolated tornado, there is also the potential for locally heavy rain. Stay tuned for the very latest details… I’ll be updating all day via Twitter, Facebook and KSFY.com.

Expect warm, humid weather to continue through the rest of the week. Tomorrow will be dry but there is a chance of scattered thunderstorms on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. If the heat and humidity isn’t your thing, wait till next week. High temperatures will be much cooler – in the low 70s – on Monday and Tuesday.

 

Heavy Rain Likely Tonight

We have some big changes coming to our weather pattern over the next couple of days. While today, tomorrow and the rest of the week will be cool like last week, it’s also going to be riddled with scattered showers and thunderstorms. As of right now, I think the best chance for rain will be late tonight into tomorrow with heavy rainfall amounts of an inch or more possible in some places, especially along and south of I-90.

Today will be mostly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible. The chance of rain during the day today is not great, but I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm. This evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop and become more widespread along the South Dakota/Nebraska state-line. Storms will move north toward I-90, bringing heavy rainfall amounts of an inch or more through the night. While the severe weather threat will be fairly minimal today and tonight, some storms could produce hail and strong straight-line wind gusts. I’ll be watching the severe potential very closely, stay tuned for updates.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into tomorrow morning. Right now, all signs point to rain ending before noon. Clouds, however, will stick around and that will keep tomorrow’s afternoon temps in the low 70s. A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.

While tonight will be our best chance at measurable rain this week, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible just about every day this week and through the weekend. If you are heading to Sturgis or are planning to spend time at the Sioux Empire Fair, don’t worry… Everything will be scattered and there will be plenty of dry time. Temperatures will warm back into the 80s by the weekend.

Don’t forget, for the latest warnings and weather updates follow me on Twitter. I’m @shawncable. If you don’t have a twitter account, no problem, just go to twitter.com/shawncable.

 

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Cable & Apland to Perform in Watertown August 8

cableaplandOne of the best piano players in the world (who just happens to be my good friend Erik Apland) and I will be performing at the Redlin Art Center Amphitheater on Friday, August 8th at 7:30pm. Tickets are on sale now for $15 and are going fast. Call (605) 882-3877 or toll free at 1-877-TREDLIN for more information or to purchase tickets.

The show is a mix of jazz, pop, Broadway tunes and whatever else we’re in the mood to do.

Need more convincing? Here’s a clip of an opera-ish song we did at the Dell Rapids Opera House back in the summer of 2012.


Here are some clips from an appearance Erik made on the KSFY Morning News back in 2012. Ignore the part about going to our performance in Dell Rapids. That already happened. Pretend we’re saying Watertown on August 8.

Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Today

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across much of our region again today. Storms will develop in two rounds. The first will develop across Nebraska early this morning and move northeast into south-central and southeast South Dakota by mid morning. Large hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts will be the primary severe threat with storms that develop this morning.

Round two will happen this afternoon as storms redevelop across eastern South Dakota and move into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Development of afternoon storms will depend largely on what happens with our first round of storms this morning. If the morning storms hold together, they could flush out some of the potential energy for storms this afternoon. If not, explosive development of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon and evening.

The atmosphere will be very unstable and packed with moisture this afternoon and the dynamics will be present for strong, supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. In addition to severe weather, the significant amount of moisture in the atmosphere means the potential for very heavy rain in places that have already had more than they can handle. Flash flooding will, once again, be possible in many places.

Stay weather aware today. Be sure you have a means of staying in touch with changing weather conditions because things could happen very quickly later today.