MONDAY, APRIL 27, 2015

Category: Daily Weather Discussion

A Cool, Wet Week Ahead

I hope you had a chance to enjoy the fantastic weather this past weekend. As we kick off the new week, we are looking forward to a much needed change in our weather pattern. The entire week ahead will be quite a bit cooler with scattered showers likely just about every day.

Today will be cloudy with scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible along and south of I-90, but I do not expect anything severe. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s with northeasterly wind gusts to 20 or 25 mph. Scattered showers are likely tonight and again tomorrow. Overall, rain will not be terribly heavy the next couple of days. Most places will get one to two tenths of an inch. Further north where temperatures are colder, scattered showers may come in the form of snow showers, so don’t be surprised if you see some white. I don’t expect any significant accumulation.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with drizzle. Thursday and Friday will bring another chance of rain. This time the rain could be a bit heavier. That’s still a few days away… I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know more specifics about the late-week rain potential as we get closer.

As of now, it looks like we’ll bounce back nicely by the weekend. Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy with highs back in the 60s.

Rain forecast through 6 pm Monday, April 6, 2015 (6Z RPM)

Rain forecast through 6 pm Monday, April 6, 2015 (6Z RPM)

Long-range rain forecast for Thursday and Friday (as of Monday, April 6, 2015)

Long-range rain forecast for Thursday and Friday (as of Monday, April 6, 2015)

Severe Storms Possible Today

Today will be warm and windy with our first chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this season. Afternoon temps will reach the upper 70s in Sioux Falls with upper 70s to low 80s possible south and east of Sioux Falls. Wind will be from the south gusting to 30 mph, shifting to the west and eventually to the northwest by late afternoon or early evening.

A cold front moving across the region will trigger thunderstorms by mid afternoon. As of right now I think the best chance of thunderstorms will be along and east of a line that extends from Marshall, MN to Sioux Falls to Yankton to O’Neill, NE. Storms will develop by mid to late afternoon and move east across southeast South Dakota into northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. While an isolated tornado is possible, the dynamics with this system are much more suited for large hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts. That will be the primary threat later today into tonight.

If things happen the way I think they will right now (at 7:45 Wednesday morning) storms will develop just southeast of Sioux Falls between 4 and 6 PM. If, however, the front slows down, storms could develop right over or just northwest of Sioux Falls. Stay tuned for updates througout the day. Follow me on Twitter or check out my Twitter feed for the most immediate updates and for watches and warnings as they’re issued.



Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow

It is going to be another amazing spring day… Even better than yesterday because it will not be windy. Today will be mostly sunny with highs ranging from the low to mid 70s in Sioux Falls and places east of the James River to the low 80s across central South Dakota.

Tomorrow will be warm and windy with our first shot at severe weather this season. Thunderstorms will develop along and east of a line from Marshall, Minnesota to Sioux Falls to Yankton by mid afternoon tomorrow and move eastward through the afternoon and into the evening. Large hail and straight-line wind gusts will be the main threat with these storms. The forecast location of storms may change a bit based on the speed of the front that will be triggering them. Stay with me throughout the day today and especially tomorrow for updates on the severe storm potential.

After tomorrow, the rest of the week will be cooler but still above average. High temperatures will range from the 50s to 60s on Thursday and Friday. The weekend will be partly cloudy and dry with high temps in the 60s.

A reminder that the Grassland Fire Danger Index will continue to be very high to extreme through tomorrow and into the weekend. Please be very, very careful with anything that has anything to do with fire. In these conditions, something as simple as a cigarette out the window can turn into a destructive wildfire in a matter of minutes.

First Major Winter Storm of the Season

Our first major winter storm of the season is winding up and getting ready to roll. A Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Storm Watch are already in effect. Here’s a map of the latest warnings and my latest FutureCast snow forecast. I’ll get into more detail later today, but I wanted to get these maps up for you this morning. Be prepared for dangerous winter travel conditions starting this evening and continuing through, most likely, Tuesday morning.



Heavy Rain Possible Wed & Thu

Followed by a GORGEOUS Labor Day Weekend!

There will be a lot of interesting stuff happening in our weather over the next few days. Today will be another comfortable, cool day, heavy rain is possible in some places later this week, and as of right now, the Labor Day weekend looks fantastic!

Let’s start with today: It’ll be partly cloudy with high temps in the low to mid 70s. The dew point will be in the 50s, which falls well within the “very comfortable” range. There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm later today, but a better chance tonight, tomorrow and Thursday.

The rain: Showers and thunderstorms are likely along and south of I-90 late tonight into tomorrow and again Wednesday night through Thursday. Models are suggesting that there will be places that get one to two inches of rain. As of right now, those models are fairly consistent in keeping the heaviest rain south of Sioux Falls, however, depending on the track of the system and individual thunderstorm cells, we could easily get one-half inch or more of rain across parts of the metro area. We will be keeping a very close eye on the rain as it develops.

The weekend: As of right now Labor Day weekend is lookin’ pretty spiffy. Temperatures will warm into the low 80s and it will be mostly dry. One of our models is hinting at an isolated late-night thunderstorm Sunday night into Monday, but overall things look pretty good. Of course, the weekend is still several days away and things could change a bit. I’ll let you know how it goes as we get closer.