FRIDAY, JULY 29, 2016
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Category: Daily Weather Discussion

Scattered Storms Today, A Nice Weekend Ahead

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy, warm and humid. High temperatures will only reach the mid 80s but the dew point will be back in the upper 60s to low 70s which will make it feel sticky. Thunderstorms will develop along east of the James River by early to mid afternoon and move east into Iowa and Minnesota by early evening. Some storms could be severe with large hail and damaging straight-line wind being the main threat.

After the storms roll out, drier air from the northwest will roll in. Tomorrow will be sunny with temperatures similar to today, but it will be a lot less humid. The weekend will be partly cloudy with highs in the mid 80s. An isolated late afternoon or nighttime thunderstorm is possible, especially across northern South Dakota.

 

Severe Storms Likely Tonight

The storm prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe storms across much of South Dakota and portions of Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. Storms will develop across western and central South Dakota by late this afternoon and move east through the night tonight.

As storms initially develop across central and western South Dakota, there will be the potential for large hail and possibly even a tornado or two. As storms progress eastward, they will evolve into a line of severe storms and the primary severe threat will transition to damaging straight-line wind gusts in excess of 70 or 80 mph.

As of right now, I think that storms are move into to central South Dakota by early evening, the James Valley after 9 or 10 PM, and into the Sioux Falls area and places along I-29 after 10 PM, possibly as late as midnight. Storms will then progress into Iowa and Minnesota during the early morning hours. Timing could change a bit depending on where and when storms develop. Be sure to stay tuned throughout the day for the latest developments.

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Sunny & Warmer Today… Watching a Possible Winter Storm

We are keeping an eye on a winter/spring storm system that could bring accumulating snow to parts of our region later this week. More on that in a sec… Before we get to the snow, I have a couple of really nice days to tell you about.

Today will be mostly sunny, warm and not terribly windy with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Central South Dakota will be quite a bit warmer with highs ranging from the mid 60s in Pierre to the mid 70s in Gregory, Winner and White River. Tomorrow won’t be quite as warm in central South Dakota, but we will warm back into the low 60s in the Sioux Falls area.

Of course, the “big talker” this morning is the possibility of snow later this week. It’s true, part of our region could get several inches of snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Our latest models are suggesting the potential for four or more inches. At this point it is way too early to get specific with a track, but it looks like the best chance for snow accumulation will be a long and south of line that runs from Marshall to Mitchell to Winner. In addition to snow, strong wind gusts will create blowing snow Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night into Thursday.

Don’t make any major decisions yet, there’s a lot that could change with the storm system. Snowfall amounts will depend largely on how fast cold air wraps its way into the system and changes rain to snow. The track is also still uncertain… A couple of our forecast models still take this system well south of our area. I’ll be watching things closely as the system develops and will have updates as things change.

Heavy Snow, Blizzard Conditions Possible Tuesday

UPDATE: System May Be Shifting North

Our latest model runs are suggesting that this winter storm system could be shifting further north. That means Sioux Falls could get more snow and an increased likelihood of blizzard conditions in the Sioux Falls area tomorrow into tomorrow night. As of right now, I am forecasting a range of 2 to 5 inches across the Sioux Falls metro area, however, if the midday model run remains consistent with our latest run and continues to suggest that this storm system will track further north, I will most likely adjust that snow forecast range upward by several inches.

Stay tuned for updates… I should have new information by around noon or shortly after.

 

Previous Update Below

A powerful winter storm system is winding up and getting ready to move into our area late tonight and will bring heavy snow and strong wind gusts to the Tri-State region through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday.

A Blizzard Warning is in effect from 3 AM tomorrow through 4 AM Wednesday for Union County, SD and parts of northwestern Iowa including the Okoboji area, Orange City, Sioux Center, Sioux City, and Elk Point. A Blizzard Watch is in effect from late tonight through Tuesday night for extreme southeastern South Dakota, a large portion of northern and western Iowa, southern Minnesota, and eastern Nebraska. South Sioux Falls, Harrisburg and Tea (Lincoln County) are included in the Blizzard Watch. I 90 from the Minnesota line east across Minnesota is included and I 29 from Sioux Falls south past Omaha is also included in the Blizzard Watch.

Snow will develop from southwest to northeast late tonight and continue through much of the day tomorrow. Snowfall accumulation will range from between 2 to 5 inches across the Sioux Falls Metro area to over 12 inches southeast of Sioux City and Spencer, Iowa. Strong north wind gusts from 25 to 35 mph will create blowing snow through much of the day tomorrow and into tomorrow night. Blowing snow will reduce visibility to near zero at times making travel nearly impossible at times.

We are going to be keeping a very close watch on this developing storm. Stay with us for the very latest updates.

Snow Forecast as of 2/1/16 at 7AM

Snow Forecast as of 2/1/16 at 7AM

 

Latest Watches, Warnings and Advisories

Latest Watches, Warnings and Advisories

Another Major Winter Storm On the Way

We are tracking another powerful winter storm system today. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Clay and Union counties in South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, southern Minnesota and all of Iowa. A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect this afternoon for a good chunk of eastern South Dakota including Sioux Falls, Yankton, Mitchell, Huron, Miller, Redfield, Brookings, Watertown and Sisseton.

Snow will begin by late this morning or early this afternoon and continue through tonight. Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly as the storm moves in during the day today. Total snowfall accumulation of 4 to 8 inches is likely with the heavier amounts east of Sioux Falls and lighter amounts north and west of Sioux Falls. The wind will kick in for a while this afternoon through tonight creating areas of blowing snow that will reduce visibility significantly at times. While the heaviest snow will fall later today through tonight, light snow will continue through Tuesday and into Tuesday night with, perhaps, an additional one-half inch to an inch of accumulation possible.

The storm will have an even bigger impact to our east. Parts of central and eastern Iowa, south central and southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin could get 8 to 12 inches or more of accumulation by tomorrow.

Winter Storm Warning is in effect all along I-90 from the SD/MN line to Chicago and along I-29 from Beresford, SD to Kansas City and beyond. Some flights from the Sioux Falls regional airport have already been delayed or canceled.

Snow Forecast as of 8am on 12/28/15

Snow Forecast as of 8am on 12/28/15

Warnings & Advisories as of 8am on 12/28/15

Warnings & Advisories as of 8am on 12/28/15

Warnings & Advisories as of 8am on 12/28/15

Warnings & Advisories as of 8am on 12/28/15