I know there’s a lot of stuff going on this weekend… Graduation parties, open house weekend at South Dakota State Parks… Whatever your plans, I’m sure you’re wondering about the storms we’ve been forecasting for this weekend. Here’s the scoop:

Storms will develop across the Black Hills and westernSouth Dakotalate this afternoon and this evening. Those storms will move east into centralSouth Dakotaby about 10 or 11 pm tonight. Scattered storms will continue to move east through the night with a slight chance of scattered storms along and east of the James River, includingSioux Falls, by morning. Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping along theJames Riverby early to mid afternoon. Storms will quickly develop into a line that sweeps across easternSouth Dakotaduring the late afternoon hours on Saturday and intoIowaandMinnesotaSaturday evening. As of right now, it looks like the best chance of thunderstorms inSioux Fallsis between 3:30 and 7:30 pm.

While a couple of these storms could bring large hail or 60+ mph straight-line wind gusts, I think that the more significant threat is the possibility of heavy rain. 1-2 inches of locally heavy rain is possible as these storms move through.

Nancy & me

Survivors

South Dakota
5 Mi W of Madison: 6.22
Madison: 5.47
Mitchell: 4.62
Bookings: 1.72
Watertown: 1.71
Sioux Falls: 1.06
Winner: 1.15
Chamberlain: 0.78
Huron: 0.97
Aberdeen: 0.50
Pierre: 0.47

Minnesota
Windom: 3.70
Redwood Falls: 4.09
Tracy: 3.01
Marshall: 3.51
Slayton: 2.76
Jackson: 2.61
Pipestone: 2.48
Luverne: 1.87
Worthington: 0.49

Iowa
Sheldon: 1.30
Orange City: 0.78
Le Mars: 1.24
Cherokee: 0.35
Storm Lake: 0.42
Spencer: 1.01
Sioux City: 0.31

Viewer Reports

Brookings: 4.50″ from Tori
Brookings: 5.00″ at K Country 102.3
Woodstock, MN (3 mi SW): 3.40″ from @corky9491
Adrian: 4.7″ from @JeffBullerman
Egan: 4.25 from Denise

Significant Severe Weather Risk across southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa, eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota late this afternoon and tonight.

Storms will come in two rounds. The first will be late this afternoon and this evening. Supercell thunderstorms will develop across northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota and move northeast. These storms will have a significant potential to produce large, damaging tornadoes. Baseball size hail and 70 + mph wind gusts are possible with these storms.

The second round will come late tonight. A line of thunderstorms will move across South Dakota late tonight… Probably reaching Sioux Falls after 10pm. Damaging straight line wind, large hail and isolated tornadoes (especially south of I-90.)

Stay tuned for the latest updates. KSFY has 9 chase teams spread out across northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota waiting for the storms to develop.   I’ll be tweeting until the storms end. Follow me @shawncable and @ksfyweather for updates. You don’t have to sign up for Twitter to see our tweets, just go here:

Shawn Cable Twitter Feed

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The potential for strong to severe storms will continue tomorrow. Hail, damaging straight line wind and isolated tornadoes will once again be possible across southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska.

Severe outlook: TODAY

A few strong to severe storms are possible again on Friday night. Right now it appears that the best chance for storms tomorrow will be along and west of the James Valley and north of I-90.

There is a much better chance of severe storms on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Saturday is still a cou0ple of days away so I don’t want to get too specific yet, but I’ll be watching things closely as our early data is suggesting an environment favorable for tornadoes and large hail. Stay tuned, Phil Kory and I will have the latest on the severe threat as things develop.

A few thunderstorms are possible across northwest Iowa later this afternoon and evening. The main wave, however, will come this evening and tonight as storms develop across Nebraska late this afternoon and move northeast into southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota this evening and tonight. The main threat with these storms will be damaging straight line wind gusts to 70 + mph and large hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible early on in the development of these storms, but my main concern is for the damaging wind potential. We’ll continue to monitor storm development and will continue to update throughout the day.

After a night of strong storms – fortunately not much damage reported – it’s time to get ready to do it all over again. Severe storms with large hail, damaging straight line wind and isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota and most of Iowa and Nebraska late this afternoon and tonight. My early morning data suggests that the bulleye for today’s severe storms will be in western Iowa between Sioux City and Omaha, but we could certainly get our share in the KSFY News coverage area as well.

Storms are expected to develop across northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota by mid to late afternoon and quickly become supercellular with the potential to produce large hail and tornadoes. Storms will move eastward into Iowa and Minnesota into the night.

Here is the latest Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook. There’s a moderate risk for severe weather from about Sioux City south.